Call me soft, but the arrival of Hurricane Gustav makes me feel a bit sorry for John McCain. Through chance alone, his political fate is tied to two mercurial and often disappointing forces- the weather and the competence of the Bush Administration.
McCain, as a U.S. Senator, has no actual power to direct any kind of rescue or relocation efforts. As I talked about below, he gets to look presidential by canceling parts of the convention and chartering jets to fly delegates around, but rescue and recovery efforts are solely in the hands of others. Gustav doesn't look like it's going to hit New Orleans directly, but if it does, or hits another populated area causing significant damage, it's going to be very problematic for McCain if the relief effort is anything short of fantastic. By the very act of appearing in charge, McCain has tied his fortunes even more directly to the success of the relief operation. Should it go awry, voters will not only be reminded of Katrina, they'll remember McCain on TV acting like the president and blame him for failures.
McCain's best hope lies not in the Bush Administration (where Michael Chertoff, who handled Katrina, is still in charge at Homeland Security), but with GOP governors of the Gulf states like Bobby Jindal (who McCain passed over for VP). Jindal and others like Mississippi governor Haley Barbour appear to be reasonably competent officials and will hopefully be successful with disaster preparation and relief efforts, but their efforts will be under the radar. The press will have a keen eye trained on FEMA and the White House for evidence of the ineptitude that plagued the Katrina disaster. McCain's fate may lie in the fickle hands of Gustav and Bush, which must be very uncomfortable for him.
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