The Bradley Effect

Many Dems and Obama supporters are worried that Obama will succumb to the "Bradley Effect," named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California Governor's race despite being ahead in the polls at the time of the election. The Bradley Effect occurs when white voters tell pollsters that they will vote for a black candidate, then either don't vote or vote for the opposing (presumably white) candidate when they get to the voting booth.

I'm skeptical that the Bradley effect will come much into play in this election. This isn't 1982, and furthermore people who don't want to vote for Obama because of his race have been using the cover of inexperience or his supposed Muslim background, so there's no need to lie to a pollster.

A couple recent studies have found no evidence of the Bradley effect in the primaries- Nate Silver, whose in-depth polling analysis at fivethirtyeight.com has been a revelation this campaign cycle found no evidence in the primaries and recently shot down a Republican pollster's attempt at showing Bradley effect, as well as Daniel Hopkins at the Kennedy School of Govt. who has found that the Bradley Effect has receded significantly as a political force since the 1996 welfare reform substantially deracinated national politics.