Monday, September 22, 2008

Leverage

Fivethirtyeight posts on the effects of knocking on doors-

In a Yale study by Donald Green and Alan Gerber on the effects of doorknocking in local elections, they concluded that a conservative estimate was that "12 successful face-to-face contacts translated into one additional vote."

Face-to-face contact is the single most important effort a volunteer can contribute to his or her candidate.Let's do a little math. 12 face-to-face contacts is one new voter who would not have otherwise voted that you personally generated. You just doubled your own vote by speaking at the door to twelve voters. Of course, then it comes down to contact rate -- how often is the person home that you're trying to reach. A very low contact rate is probably 10%, and that happens. A very high contact rate can be 50%. Average is in the 25% ballpark. On average, you'd have to knock on 48 doors to generate 12 face-to-face contacts and one additional vote. 48 doors is a pretty standard, approximate walk list.

So if you go out one four-hour walk shift every weekend between now and the election, you've generated -- on average -- six extra votes from people who would not otherwise have voted for your candidate.

Six more weekends until the election means that politically-involved individuals doing one walk-list per weekend could leverage their one vote up to 36. That's the way that people who are paying attention can beat the low-information voters.

No comments: