As the election heads into its final four days, we're looking at a pretty good position for Obama. The McCain folks talk about how the race is tightening, and Drudge and Fox News cherry-pick the best poll results for the GOP, but thinks are looking pretty good.
The overall polling shows Obama up by about six points, which is slightly tighter than the 8 point lead he had last week.
Although the race has tightened slightly, there's no indication that McCain has done anything to fundamentally alter the dynamics of the race that have been in play since the economic downturn began. Voters appear to be voting on the basis of the economy, and they prefer Obama's approach to McCain's.
In terms of field operations, I've written about how impressed I've been with the Obama offices in PA- their efforts absolutely dwarf what we put together in Ft. Lauderdale for Gore in 2000. In response, McCain is actually cutting back GOTV from the 2004 Bush operation:
The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices. This week, a number of veteran GOP operatives who orchestrate door-to-door efforts to get voters to the polls were told they should not expect to receive plane tickets, rental cars or hotel rooms from the campaign.
Most importantly, Obama has many more paths to victory than McCain. If you take Obama's baseline as the Kerry states plus Iowa, (which are all pretty much polling in double digits for him), he can win the following ways: win any one of VA, OH, FL or NC; or pick up any two of CO, NM, NV or MO (although getting NM and NV would put him at 269 votes, which would throw the race to the House- a win, but a messy one). So essentially, McCain must win VA, OH, FL and NC (all states where the polls show him behind or tied), and must win 3 of 4 of CO, NM, NV or MO. Even if McCain were somehow able to win PA, which is looking pretty unlikely, Obama could still win by picking up 3 or 4 of those 8 states.
Although I'm feeling (knock on wood) confident, that doesn't mean that this is a foregone conclusion. Obama's GOTV model requires volunteers to knock on millions of doors and make millions of calls in the next four days. I'm leaving for Philadelphia tomorrow morning to put my legal skills (such as they are) to work doing voter protection, and trying to sneak in some time knocking on doors. I also hope to duck out on Monday afternoon to do my favorite thing in politics- roadside visibility (e.g.- waving signs) during rush hour the day before an election.
I'll be doing my best to post on what's happening in Philly, and I have friends and colleagues who will be campaigning in Scranton, Louisiana, Ohio and Virginia- so I'll get their on-the-ground scoops as well. I'd love to post information from any of my readers during the next couple days. The word from ground-level is often better informed than what you can find in the press.
3.5 days until the polls open...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Security Theater
Jeff Goldberg shows what a joke airport security is, and the extent to which it's entirely designed to make us feel like we're secure, while not in fact doing much at all to stop terrorists:
As I stood in the bathroom, ripping up boarding passes, waiting for the social network of male bathroom users to report my suspicious behavior, I decided to make myself as nervous as possible. I would try to pass through security with no ID, a fake boarding pass, and an Osama bin Laden T-shirt under my coat. I splashed water on my face to mimic sweat, put on a coat (it was a summer day), hid my driver’s license, and approached security with a bogus boarding pass that Schneier had made for me. I told the document checker at security that I had lost my identification but was hoping I would still be able to make my flight. He said I’d have to speak to a supervisor. The supervisor arrived; he looked smart, unfortunately. I was starting to get genuinely nervous, which I hoped would generate incriminating micro-expressions. “I can’t find my driver’s license,” I said. I showed him my fake boarding pass. “I need to get to Washington quickly,” I added. He asked me if I had any other identification. I showed him a credit card with my name on it, a library card, and a health-insurance card. “Nothing else?” he asked.
“No,” I said.
“You should really travel with a second picture ID, you know.”
“Yes, sir,” I said.
“All right, you can go,” he said, pointing me to the X-ray line. “But let this be a lesson for you.”
As I stood in the bathroom, ripping up boarding passes, waiting for the social network of male bathroom users to report my suspicious behavior, I decided to make myself as nervous as possible. I would try to pass through security with no ID, a fake boarding pass, and an Osama bin Laden T-shirt under my coat. I splashed water on my face to mimic sweat, put on a coat (it was a summer day), hid my driver’s license, and approached security with a bogus boarding pass that Schneier had made for me. I told the document checker at security that I had lost my identification but was hoping I would still be able to make my flight. He said I’d have to speak to a supervisor. The supervisor arrived; he looked smart, unfortunately. I was starting to get genuinely nervous, which I hoped would generate incriminating micro-expressions. “I can’t find my driver’s license,” I said. I showed him my fake boarding pass. “I need to get to Washington quickly,” I added. He asked me if I had any other identification. I showed him a credit card with my name on it, a library card, and a health-insurance card. “Nothing else?” he asked.
“No,” I said.
“You should really travel with a second picture ID, you know.”
“Yes, sir,” I said.
“All right, you can go,” he said, pointing me to the X-ray line. “But let this be a lesson for you.”
Obama variety half-hour, reviewed
All in all I thought Obama's infomercial last night was pretty successful. To the extent that McCain's "spread the wealth" mantra is coded language for the idea that Obama is going to take white folks money and give it to welfare queens, this ad was a great prophylactic.
Focusing on people who are being hurt by the economic downturn- not because they're lazy or ignorant or made foolish choices- but through bad luck or because their part of the economy isn't working right any longer, makes it clear who the beneficiaries of any "wealth spreading" would be. The people highlighted last night were folks who worked hard and did their best, but were being let down by their health, the economy, or their employers. I think for anyone who watched last night, it's a tough sell to think that redistributing a bit of wealth from somebody making $250k to these folks is something to be afraid of.
Focusing on people who are being hurt by the economic downturn- not because they're lazy or ignorant or made foolish choices- but through bad luck or because their part of the economy isn't working right any longer, makes it clear who the beneficiaries of any "wealth spreading" would be. The people highlighted last night were folks who worked hard and did their best, but were being let down by their health, the economy, or their employers. I think for anyone who watched last night, it's a tough sell to think that redistributing a bit of wealth from somebody making $250k to these folks is something to be afraid of.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Murtha wants $50
I just received the following email from John Murtha's campaign:
Dear Friends,
After decades of fighting for this country and our troops, I am up against the right-wing attack machine again. Because of my work to end the Iraq war, they have thrown hundreds of thousands of dollars behind my opponent, who lives in Virginia with his family, not in my district in Pennsylvania. Now, I am suddenly being outspent 3 to 1. They are up to the same old tricks, "swiftboating" me again as they did two years ago. So I am asking people who have stood with me on Iraq to stand with me again to stop them in their tracks. Can you chip in $50 for me and a few other candidates at the link below?
Maybe it's because of the work he did to end the Iraq war... but maybe it's because he keeps going on TV and calling the voters in his district rednecks and racists...
Dear Friends,
After decades of fighting for this country and our troops, I am up against the right-wing attack machine again. Because of my work to end the Iraq war, they have thrown hundreds of thousands of dollars behind my opponent, who lives in Virginia with his family, not in my district in Pennsylvania. Now, I am suddenly being outspent 3 to 1. They are up to the same old tricks, "swiftboating" me again as they did two years ago. So I am asking people who have stood with me on Iraq to stand with me again to stop them in their tracks. Can you chip in $50 for me and a few other candidates at the link below?
Maybe it's because of the work he did to end the Iraq war... but maybe it's because he keeps going on TV and calling the voters in his district rednecks and racists...
Obama variety half-hour
Tonight at 8 we've got a half hour of "Barack Obama: American Stories" ("all new" NBC helpfully explains), which supplants the usual Wednesday 8:00 lineup of Bones, Knight Rider and The New Adventures old Christine.
I haven't watched any of these shows and thus can't really comment on whether their fans will be upset that their TV watching schedules are being disrupted. I could imagine a die-hard Bones fan settling in to watch her show, and then being somewhat annoyed that it's been bumped for an Obama commercial. I'm interested to see what Obama does with the time to make any negatives from the show-bumps worth it. One of my colleagues suggests a sports montage with inspirational music, since everyone loves a sports montage. I think maybe a half-hour preview of the Harry Potter movie that was scheduled for this Christmas and then got moved back to next summer, if "brought to you by Barack Obama" would be a big winner.
I haven't watched any of these shows and thus can't really comment on whether their fans will be upset that their TV watching schedules are being disrupted. I could imagine a die-hard Bones fan settling in to watch her show, and then being somewhat annoyed that it's been bumped for an Obama commercial. I'm interested to see what Obama does with the time to make any negatives from the show-bumps worth it. One of my colleagues suggests a sports montage with inspirational music, since everyone loves a sports montage. I think maybe a half-hour preview of the Harry Potter movie that was scheduled for this Christmas and then got moved back to next summer, if "brought to you by Barack Obama" would be a big winner.
"His Choice"
Obama is up with a new ad that directly raises, for the first time, the problems with McCain's Palin pick:
I think this is a pretty hard-hitting ad, and using McCain's own words makes it even more so. But really, is it wise to make this kind of move with less than a week left? It seems like Obama basically needs to keep making the points he's making, get the GOTV operation in gear, and run out the clock. This ad feels a little risky... not sure how many people need this point directly made to them (as the media's done a pretty good job of making it) and runs the risk of a backlash. These guys usually have good instincts, but I'm not sure about this.
I think this is a pretty hard-hitting ad, and using McCain's own words makes it even more so. But really, is it wise to make this kind of move with less than a week left? It seems like Obama basically needs to keep making the points he's making, get the GOTV operation in gear, and run out the clock. This ad feels a little risky... not sure how many people need this point directly made to them (as the media's done a pretty good job of making it) and runs the risk of a backlash. These guys usually have good instincts, but I'm not sure about this.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Team of Mavericks has some teamwork issues
From Rob Draper at GQ:
On the other hand, it had to be hard for Sarah Palin—who has achieved all she’s achieved with a highly personal touch—to take all this ridicule under an enforced gag order. After being introduced to the world as one of the “Team of Mavericks,” she’s admonished not to be one. She’s being called out by some McCainites for not cleaving to all of the senator’s positions. The Republicans who fawned over her superstar looks are now shocked—shocked!—to learn that her much-admired wardrobe has been purchased with RNC funds. I’ve heard from one well-placed source that McCain has snubbed her on one long bus ride aboard the Straight Talk Express, to the embarrassment of those sitting nearby. It has surely been implied to the governor that she should be eternally grateful to have been plucked from obscurity. And yet the high water mark of John McCain’s campaign for the presidency unquestionably began on September 3, when Palin gave her nomination speech.
Seriously, he snubbed her on the bus? Well, at least the campaign is graduating from the nursery school of "Joe the Plumber" and "Tito the Builder" into middle school...
On the other hand, it had to be hard for Sarah Palin—who has achieved all she’s achieved with a highly personal touch—to take all this ridicule under an enforced gag order. After being introduced to the world as one of the “Team of Mavericks,” she’s admonished not to be one. She’s being called out by some McCainites for not cleaving to all of the senator’s positions. The Republicans who fawned over her superstar looks are now shocked—shocked!—to learn that her much-admired wardrobe has been purchased with RNC funds. I’ve heard from one well-placed source that McCain has snubbed her on one long bus ride aboard the Straight Talk Express, to the embarrassment of those sitting nearby. It has surely been implied to the governor that she should be eternally grateful to have been plucked from obscurity. And yet the high water mark of John McCain’s campaign for the presidency unquestionably began on September 3, when Palin gave her nomination speech.
Seriously, he snubbed her on the bus? Well, at least the campaign is graduating from the nursery school of "Joe the Plumber" and "Tito the Builder" into middle school...
Barkley 2014
Charles Barkley has declared his candidacy for the governorship of Alabama in... 2014? Maybe I'm missing something, but that seems like a bit of a wait. Bob Riley, the current governor, is up for re-election in 2010 (if Alabama governors can run for a 3rd term). So presumably Barkley plans to run against a 4th term Riley, or whoever beats Riley?
Why the race would be worth following?
He added that his native state could only improve. "We are number 48 in everything and Arkansas and Mississippi aren't going anywhere," Barkley said.
Why the race would be worth following?
He added that his native state could only improve. "We are number 48 in everything and Arkansas and Mississippi aren't going anywhere," Barkley said.
Monday, October 27, 2008
And the show has reached a new low (pt. 2)
Mitch McConnell's campaign is apparently filing charges of petty larceny against his Democratic opponent, Bruce Lunsford, after Lunsford confiscated a small tape recorder that a McConnell staffer hid in Lunsford's podium during a recent debate in an attempt to record any soto voce comments made by the Democrat.
Progressive Conservatives
David Brooks' op-ed piece this weekend on McCain's failure to reach out to the centrists is required reading for anyone interested in American politics. Ignoring Brooks' assertions that McCain would be an "outstanding president," there is a succint summary of a centrist governing philosophy that can really drive the Democrats (and the nation) forward, and is steeped in pragmatism:
There are two major political parties in America, but there are at least three major political tendencies. The first is orthodox liberalism, a belief in using government to maximize equality. The second is free-market conservatism, the belief in limiting government to maximize freedom.
But there is a third tendency, which floats between. It is for using limited but energetic government to enhance social mobility. This tendency began with Alexander Hamilton, who created a vibrant national economy so more people could rise and succeed. It matured with Abraham Lincoln and the Civil War Republicans, who created the Land Grant College Act and the Homestead Act to give people the tools to pursue their ambitions. It continued with Theodore Roosevelt, who busted the trusts to give more Americans a square deal.
This is a governing philosophy that understands that our duty to each other is to make sure that everyone is at roughly the same starting line, not that everybody has to finish at the same place. It understands that we can't let children lose their opportunity in life because of the failures of their parents.
I think Brooks and I might part ways on the level of government activity necessary to enhance social mobility, particularly with regard to the kind of investments we need in education to put kids from poor families on the same footing starting out in life as those from more wealthy families. Ultimately the more the country coalesces around this kind of governing philosophy (and leaves fights over "spreading the wealth" and "welfare queens" back in the '80s), the better off we'll all be.
Hat tip to TS on Facebook for bringing the piece to my attention.
There are two major political parties in America, but there are at least three major political tendencies. The first is orthodox liberalism, a belief in using government to maximize equality. The second is free-market conservatism, the belief in limiting government to maximize freedom.
But there is a third tendency, which floats between. It is for using limited but energetic government to enhance social mobility. This tendency began with Alexander Hamilton, who created a vibrant national economy so more people could rise and succeed. It matured with Abraham Lincoln and the Civil War Republicans, who created the Land Grant College Act and the Homestead Act to give people the tools to pursue their ambitions. It continued with Theodore Roosevelt, who busted the trusts to give more Americans a square deal.
This is a governing philosophy that understands that our duty to each other is to make sure that everyone is at roughly the same starting line, not that everybody has to finish at the same place. It understands that we can't let children lose their opportunity in life because of the failures of their parents.
I think Brooks and I might part ways on the level of government activity necessary to enhance social mobility, particularly with regard to the kind of investments we need in education to put kids from poor families on the same footing starting out in life as those from more wealthy families. Ultimately the more the country coalesces around this kind of governing philosophy (and leaves fights over "spreading the wealth" and "welfare queens" back in the '80s), the better off we'll all be.
Hat tip to TS on Facebook for bringing the piece to my attention.
Joe the Congressional Candidate
Briefing Room reports that Sam "Joe the Plumber" Wurzelbacher is mulling a run for congress in 2010, and already has up right-wing talk radiatrix Laura Ingraham volunteering to do his PR. The depressing thing is that, after seeing the general congressional bafflement at the economic crisis, electing somebody who doesn't know the difference between net and gross income probably would not seriously decrease the overall economic competency of the House.
Syria
The AP is reporting that over the weekend US forces launched an attack into Syria using Army Helicopters:
"We are taking matters into our own hands," the official told The Associated Press in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivity of cross-border raids.
The attack came just days after the commander of U.S. forces in western Iraq said American troops were redoubling efforts to secure the Syrian border, which he called an "uncontrolled" gateway for fighters entering Iraq
A Syrian government statement said the helicopters attacked the Sukkariyeh Farm near the town of Abu Kamal, five miles inside the Syrian border. Four helicopters attacked a civilian building under construction shortly before sundown and fired on workers inside, the statement said.
The government said civilians were among the dead, including four children.
A resident of the nearby village of Hwijeh said some of the helicopters landed and troops exited the aircraft and fired on a building. He said the aircraft flew along the Euphrates River into the area of farms and several brick factories. The witness spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.
Now I realize the Syrian government is totally perfidious and is trying to use this attack to make us look bad, and that government is the source of the news about the dead civilians and children.
On the other hand, we're going to need Syrian government cooperation as part of some kind of regional concert to keep the situation in Iraq reasonably contained as we draw down troops, and this sort of attack isn't helpful. I understand that we want to protect our troops in Iraq, and stem the flow of foreign fighters and materiel into the war zone, but I have to imagine there are better ways to go about it than this.
I don't see why we couldn't have predator drones or a geosynched satellite keep an eye on the farm that we targeted, and then hit the fighters when they crossed into Iraq, thus not having to actually fire weapons in Syria. I'm by no means a soveriegnty absolutist- I have no problem with targetting bin Laden in tribal areas of Pakistan, because that's where he's holed up. On the other hand, breaching sovereignty carries a cost, and if we knew that bin Laden was routinely crossing into Afghanistan probably the thing to do would be to wait until he gets out of Pakistan to hit him. Unless there were significant caches of arms at the targeted Syrian farm, or some reason that the farm itself needed to be destroyed, why not just wait until the guys we actually want to kill (and we want to kill them because they're going into Iraq) actually go into Iraq?
"We are taking matters into our own hands," the official told The Associated Press in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivity of cross-border raids.
The attack came just days after the commander of U.S. forces in western Iraq said American troops were redoubling efforts to secure the Syrian border, which he called an "uncontrolled" gateway for fighters entering Iraq
A Syrian government statement said the helicopters attacked the Sukkariyeh Farm near the town of Abu Kamal, five miles inside the Syrian border. Four helicopters attacked a civilian building under construction shortly before sundown and fired on workers inside, the statement said.
The government said civilians were among the dead, including four children.
A resident of the nearby village of Hwijeh said some of the helicopters landed and troops exited the aircraft and fired on a building. He said the aircraft flew along the Euphrates River into the area of farms and several brick factories. The witness spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.
Now I realize the Syrian government is totally perfidious and is trying to use this attack to make us look bad, and that government is the source of the news about the dead civilians and children.
On the other hand, we're going to need Syrian government cooperation as part of some kind of regional concert to keep the situation in Iraq reasonably contained as we draw down troops, and this sort of attack isn't helpful. I understand that we want to protect our troops in Iraq, and stem the flow of foreign fighters and materiel into the war zone, but I have to imagine there are better ways to go about it than this.
I don't see why we couldn't have predator drones or a geosynched satellite keep an eye on the farm that we targeted, and then hit the fighters when they crossed into Iraq, thus not having to actually fire weapons in Syria. I'm by no means a soveriegnty absolutist- I have no problem with targetting bin Laden in tribal areas of Pakistan, because that's where he's holed up. On the other hand, breaching sovereignty carries a cost, and if we knew that bin Laden was routinely crossing into Afghanistan probably the thing to do would be to wait until he gets out of Pakistan to hit him. Unless there were significant caches of arms at the targeted Syrian farm, or some reason that the farm itself needed to be destroyed, why not just wait until the guys we actually want to kill (and we want to kill them because they're going into Iraq) actually go into Iraq?
"I'm going to test them"
From the Chicago Tribune:
McCain, meanwhile, seized on remarks by Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, about the possibility an international crisis if the junior senator is elected, as the world tests him, just as John F. Kennedy was tested by the Cuban missile crisis.
"They may want to test Sen. Obama. I've been tested," McCain said. "I'm going to test them. They're not going to test me. The next president won't have time to get used to the office."
McCain isn't really making sense here. Presumably the sentence "the next president won't have time to get used to the office" applies equally to both McCain and Obama, as to my knowledge McCain has not spent any time as President.
And what does he mean by "I'm going to test them"? He's going to test the world's patience by starting another unilateral war?
McCain, meanwhile, seized on remarks by Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, about the possibility an international crisis if the junior senator is elected, as the world tests him, just as John F. Kennedy was tested by the Cuban missile crisis.
"They may want to test Sen. Obama. I've been tested," McCain said. "I'm going to test them. They're not going to test me. The next president won't have time to get used to the office."
McCain isn't really making sense here. Presumably the sentence "the next president won't have time to get used to the office" applies equally to both McCain and Obama, as to my knowledge McCain has not spent any time as President.
And what does he mean by "I'm going to test them"? He's going to test the world's patience by starting another unilateral war?
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Lieberman on Palin
While campaigning in Connecticut, Lieberman was asked if he thought Palin was prepared to be president. His answer (via Halperin):
"thank God she's not going to have to be president from day one. McCain's going to be alive and well."
"thank God she's not going to have to be president from day one. McCain's going to be alive and well."
This does not inspire a lot of confidence...
First personally observed election screw-up of the cycle- the New York City Board of Elections yesterday sent me two absentee ballots.
I imagine that if I were to fill them both out and send them in that somebody would probably disregard the second one... but if the responsibility for disregarding the second is in the hands of the same folks who are supposed to make sure that only one ballot gets sent out in the first place...
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