First, in the city centers, Obama support is strong. In Charlottesville, at least, there is not a McCain sign to be found. But of course that's a college town. A friend works in Fairfax, and daily notices a trend in yard signs: Obama, Obama, Obama...turn onto rural route 17, and it's solid McCain. VA is the most purple state in the Union, but only from a distance. Red and Blue don't mix well down here. I think this is largely a consequence of Yankees moving in and voting blue; the "natives" are still solidly conservative.
Second, McCain's message is truly working among the Red crowd: they were (for the most part) quite convinced Obama is a socialist, and have taken his "spread the wealth" comment very seriously. The more astute among the guys I talked to (like my friend who used to work in the Bush 41 white house) are not worried that the socialist state is going to happen anytime soon--he realizes that Obama won't be able to wave a wand and make it happen, given the economy--but he is sure that a second-term Obama president with a strong mandate and an improved economy would try to socialize medicine, increase welfare, etc. They generally point to his history of making statements like that to show that his underlying desire is precisely that. Some were scared it will happen sooner rather than later, but the general feeling was that of fear that the nanny state is coming.
The question of taxes is charged, but admittedly somewhat skewed in this crowd: they are all farmer boys, but are also government contractors and former military. All of them own quite a bit of land and built and cultivated it themselves. Most actually do have a yearly income of over $250k and enough wealth to be upset about redistributions schemes. One told me "right now I pay more taxes than some people make. I pay more taxes than three families combined. Why is he coming after me for more? If this happens, I'm going to quit my job and retire. It's just not worth all the work." I know in the past you and I have talked about farm subsidies making hypocrites out of middle america when they attack government programs. This was not the case here, though, since none of them take subsidies.
Guns came up breifly, and probably only as a joke: "if he's elected, I'm hiding my ammo..." (This was a shooting trip so our guns were actually leaning on the porch railings with us while we talked). Everyone laughed, but I don't think they really think he's going to take anyone's guns away, but again their big concern was not Obama's first term, but his putative second, during which he would feel more confident that he could take a leftward turn.
I talked about voting for republicans for other offices, but the idea isn't popular in VA: they are all Warner fans (as nearly all of us are), but hope he'll be a moderate Democrat and block hard turns to the left.
The best conversation was in foreign policy, and here I wasn't even close to the expert in the room. My one friend in particular works in some capacity for the government that he can't tell us about, and as I said worked in the intelligence branch for Bush 41's White House. But his take on foreign affairs is this: He's scared of all of the candidates. McCain for being too stubborn and crazy, Palin for the liklihood that she would try to be too tough with no sense of nuance, Biden for generally being useless, and Obama because "he would be perceived as weak." The rest of the crowd agreed, at least with the last comment, but at this point the conversation turned to Palin.
She really is loved by many people here. Her message of "regular folks" is working well with "regular folks." She has in fact convinced them that knowing nothing about Washington is a qualification: she was described as "refreshing," "smarter than you think," "a real tough lady," a "victim of the press," etc. During the foreign policy discussion we mentioned how Reagan was both tough but also intelligently pliable: they felt she could do that too. (The fact that Reagan was also not an "expert" helped prove to them that it's possible to be a great foreign-policy leader with no experience). When I pointed out that I would be scared to have her across the table from Putin (bringing up how Truman was rolled over by Stalin at Postdam largely through inexperience), everyone agreed in theory, but pointed out that she would get good advisors to help her, and asserted that it would be better to have a bit of a loose cannon facing Putin than a man who might be weak and vacillating. Then they started saying "why don't you think she's qualified?" I said just listening to her talk and ramble told me she had no real ideas, just catchphrases. That got the conversation back on Obama: he has no real depth, he's just all nice words, and "I don't really know who he is yet, it's all just words with him." Some contended that they actually liked Palin over McCain, and wished she were heading the ticket; they pointed out that McCain was to some degree responsible for much of the mess in Washington, and they like the idea of fresh blood more than anything else. One argued that Palin was exactly what Jefferson wanted in a president: a regular person from the country who comes and goes without being stained by politics. I pointed out that what Jefferson meant by "farmer" was a "farmer" like he was; highly educated, polished, etc., not just anyone. After all, he called Jackson the worst possible choice for president.
That won that point, but I perceived the underlying reasons for these feelings, and here it is. I think that the Left is responsible for the attitude I saw in these men, along with geography and a sense of tradition. When TV pundits insult Palin (and I think with good right--but now I realize the effect it has), they are insulting these men, and millions like them. They are saying that they are not qualified to lead in a democracy. Many of them were veterans, and the insult stung deep. It is galling to these men, I perceived, to be told that people like them are unqualified by people who have never risked anything, or gotten their fingernails dirty. They also live in a world (I've pointed this out before) where your nearest neighbor is a mile away or more. Government is not a helping hand here; its a nosy neighbor. (I grant that farm subsidies make this picture complicated, but here it was not an issue). Rugged individualism isn't just a catchphrase with them--they literally carve their fields out of forests; I've helped them do it! They wonder "if I work so hard, and scrape so hard, why doesn't everyone?" Their fear of socialism, I'm sure, stems from the hatred of free-loading in a world where shirking of work cannot be hidden and is deeply resented.
In short, when they see Palin, they are willing to look past her incredible lack of qualification and say "at least she understands me; she knows what its like to be looked down on." That I am convinced is her appeal. It is irrational, I know, but then again what is, in politics? That is why the R ticket will pull well down here no matter what. It's all the more obvious in virginia, where a "regular guy" now sees McMansions and Beamers everywhere. They get a sense of satisfaction sticking it to "those people," who, of course, are sitting around in their living rooms with a sense of satisfaction about sticking it to the other "those people."
Now, at the risk of romanticizing all this, there is some fair hypocrisy. It is wrong to pretend Obama is all catch phrases and Palin is not. It is wrong to turn a sense of injury into a cause to else a president (in fact that is frightening, and isn't that what most of NYC is doing?). It is wrong to ignore qualification for a weak sense of "I feel like she does." Yes I have insulted Palin, but we should really ask ourselves why people like her: dig a little deeper and I see that she supplies a need in these people that Obama never can. The need to feel important.
I'm supporting Obama. But talking to these guys you can see why many don't, even if they don't realize why they don't. It's not going to be an easy win for him. I am a bit worried that the last minute decision won't be "he's black." It will be "he looks down on me."
That's my take.
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