Clarifying my position on an Israeli strike on Iran

A friend brought to my attention that I may have been somewhat flippant in a previous post about a potential Israeli strike on Iran.

To clarify my thoughts, I'll note that I definitely believe that Israel is a major US ally, and as one of the only two real democracies in the Middle East, is certainly worthy of U.S. support. Furthermore, the F-16s and other aircraft that we've sold to the IDF have been critical bulwarks against Saddam and other potential invaders.

That said, I do have serious fears about the repercussions of an attempted strike by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities. I think that, unlike the strike on the Osiraq facility, which was a complete surprise, Iran has the benefit of looking at previous IDF operations and can defend its nuclear processing operation. Most likely the Iranian nuke operation is spread out, deep underground, and has at least some components in locations that haven't been penetrated by US or Israeli intelligence. If I thought that the strike would do anything more than maybe push an Iranian bomb back a year or two, my calculus on it would change.

I also think that, despite Ahmadinejad's deeply problematic anti-Israeli rhetoric, a nuclear Iran (in a worst case scenario) would still be a rational country that could be dissuaded from using nuclear force through deterrance based on 1.) potential retaliation from the 200-300 nuclear weapons that Israel is believed to possess, and 2.) the threat of retaliation in kind by the US. The Iranian theocracy has demonstrated rational (as opposed to wild-eyed religious irrational) policymaking before- entering into a cease-fire with Iraq when Iraqi forces began firing missiles into Tehran, and partnering (against their co-religionists) with the Christian Armenians vs. the largely muslim Azerbaijan. Despite the rhetoric, I think that deterrance would work. Of course, as I said, this is a worst-case scenario, and a non-nuclear Iran is vastly preferable, but I don't think that they would risk American ICBMs detonating in Tehran in order to make good on Ahmadinejad's threats to Israel.

For the US, an Israeli strike that traveled through American-controlled airspace in Iraq would have an effect far greater than a PR backlash. With hundreds of thousands of American troops in Iraq, who have been working closely with Iraqi Shia, an American blessing on an Israeli raid could have serious consequences on our ability to end the Iraqi war. Increased Shiite beligerence in Iraq coupled with increased Iranian aid could mean thousands more American lives lost.

Ultimately, I think my greatest fear about an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear operation is that it wouldn't be successful, and it would scuttle any attempt by the US and Europe to peacefully roll back Iran's nuclear program- and at the same time vastly complicate America's efforts in Iraq in Afghanistan (not to mention the immediate impact on Israeli citizens from renewed attacks by Iran's puppet Hezbollah, which I've read has four times the number of rockets and missiles that they had before the 2006 Lebanon war).

I think that Israel, like any sovereign state, has every right to defend itself against future threats, particularly those of an existential nature. However, when their leaders take a maximalist defensive posture of preventive warfare (essentially identical to Bush's toward Iraq) that would have serious consequences for their ally the United States, think it's important to question the wisdom of that policy.